NuScale and Oklo 2025Q1 Earnings Breakdowns
The senior PWR and the junior SFR
This is a one-time free example for our non-paying subscribers to get an idea of what our earnings report breakdowns look like. Our paid subscribers are enjoying similar breakdowns for the recent earnings reports from LEU, MIR, and BWXT in our bi-weekly market review posts. Thanks for reading!
NuScale Power’s (NYSE: SMR) 2025Q1 earnings report and earnings call
Major Points
Standard Design Approval on schedule for July 2025, CEO hoping to beat this scheduled due date and get results in May/June
Confident in first order before end of 2025, ordered long-lead materials for 12 modules
Meaningful revenue coming in from Front End Engineering Design in Romania with Final Investment Decision for project expected in Q1 2026
In CEO’s opinion, other nuclear projects are at least four years behind
Major forger is Doosan in South Korea and fuel fabricator Framatome from France, likely at their Washington state facility (could this hurt NuScale if the upcoming EOs gives preferred regulatory treatment to nuclear companies with domestic supply chains?)
“[NuScale is in] various stages of discussions with potential customers both here in the US and abroad. Domestically, this includes discussions with government officials and industries, including data centers, utilities, coal plant operators transitioning to nuclear and petrochemical and energy companies. Internationally with stakeholders around the globe in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. On the data center front, ENTRA1 continues to lead discussions with major US Hyperscalers with a strong focus on powering AI operations”
“Of these customer discussions, classify upwards to 10 as advanced, many of which have progressed to the point of multiple iterations of term sheets exchanged between parties and customer site visits to Doosan”
Hydrogen production is integrated into the plant design and control systems, capable of producing 200 metric tons per day
“We are no longer chasing or announcing MOUs … we’re actually in the process of of submittal and and negotiating term sheets”
If first order comes soon, could have operations by 2030
Order confidence is there. Doosan spending own capital on forging reactor vessels and steam generators
“in relation to the sale of modules, we expect somewhere around 25% of the cost of modules to come in the first year and for NuScale to be cash flow positive from that perspective”
Lots of “Tier 1” customers discussing orders. AI developers, data centers, Mag7, and industrials. They don’t want nuclear, they just want 24/7 clean power, which is where ENTRA1 comes in, which is the same as Elementl
Doosan capacity is about 20 modules per year, but they could do more potentially
OpEx will be higher next quarter due to investments in the supply chain
NuScale is advanced nuclear. They can burn MOX and thorium based on completed studies. They can desalinate and produce hydrogen. They have made significant advancements over existing reactor designs and are the closest to ‘ready for deployment’
Commentary
NuScale isn’t wasting time signing empty MOUs, they’re actually getting deals set up and are close to money changing hands. These deals are incredibly complicated, but ENTRA1/Fluor are a huge help
ENTRA1 is just like Elementl, they organize all the nuclear “stuff” such that it comes down to just a power off-take agreement for whoever the consumer is
Biggest thing to highlight:
2024Q3 no talk about customers
2024Q4 mentioned talking to customers
2025Q1 exchanging term sheets with multiple buyers
The first of multiple deals is very close to being announced. Very excited for nuclear as a whole
Oklo Inc’s (NYSE: OKLO) 2025Q1 earnings report and earnings call
Major Points
First revenue expected in mid-2026
Highlighted their “Build, Own, Operate” business model. They intend to sell power, not reactors
Highlighted fuel chain work so far. 5 metric tons of fuel from the US government for their first design, MOU with Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU) for future HALEU needs, and then mentioned their reactor’s ability to use recycled fuel due to being a fast reactor vice something like NuScale’s thermal design
Progress being made in Idaho for first reactor, targeting operations in 2027/2028
Atomic Alchemist acquisition for isotope production and sales discussed. Will pursuit two paths, one being third-party irradiation and customer sales to demonstrate radioisotope production, with revenue from this path coming as early as next year. The other will be a four-reactor production facility for direct sale of radioisotopes. An NRC construction license is intended to be submitted in 2025, operations in 2028
They submitted a license operator topical report to the NRC, which describes a novel licensing approach specifically for Oklo’s Aurora powerhouses. This is to help combat a manning issue and attempt to certify one operator to monitor multiple reactors at once
OpenAI discussions advancing
Executives stressed repeatedly that the plant they are building in Idaho is a commercial plant, not a testing ground
They are going to install equipment for a pilot fabrication facility in an existing building in Idaho near the current reactor construction site. Then they will work to set up a full scale fuel fabrication facility at a later date
Current focus is on a 75 MWe design
CFO says they are exchanging term sheets with customers in the data center space
Lots of time spent discussing the executive order rumors about speeding up nuclear deployments
Commentary
Oklo is like NuScale and ENTRA1 squished together. NuScale builds the reactor as a subcontractor to a company like Fluor, ENTRA1, or a utility, then an entity other than NuScale will operate the reactor after delivery. So NuScale will make money on the front end for design and fabrication, then money over the life of the reactor through consultation, training, and parts sales. Oklo will build the reactor themselves, and then retain ownership and operational responsibility from delivery through decommissioning. Oklo will make money the way ENTRA1 and Elementl will - by selling the power to a customer
The fuel discussion got a whole slide on their ER due to the topic being frequently cited as the number one issue holding back advanced reactor designs. It’s great that they’re already talking with a future supplier, but Centrus is still working to build out their HALEU capacity, which is on track for only 6000 kg/year capacity in 2028. Not going to cover once demand actually picks up
Not appreciating the projected timelines. A four-reactor plant operating three years from now??? No. NuScale is actively forging their reactor vessels in South Korea and projects 2030 for initial operations. And NuScale has a completed and certified design, unlike Oklo. This timeline is extremely unbelievable, for now…
All things considered, the timelines that we have come to anticipate in the past, and up until today, could change dramatically depending on the words in the executive orders that will likely be released soon regarding nuclear development. It is not unreasonable to think Secretary Wright was discussing ideas for how to change things while he was still on the Oklo board. Maybe Oklo is anticipating the process to reach commercialization being shortened considerably in multiple different ways
Lightbridge Corp (NASDAQ: LTBR) was mentioned near the end of the earnings call. As a reminder, Lightbridge will be working with Oklo not to collaborate on a fuel design, but more so to enjoy synergies on things like licensing requirements and personnel expertise